What is the weather next week

  


D4Fri, Jan 31, 2020 - Sat, Feb 01, 2020D7Mon, Feb 03, 2020 - Tue, Feb 04, 2020
D5Sat, Feb 01, 2020 - Sun, Feb 02, 2020D8Tue, Feb 04, 2020 - Wed, Feb 05, 2020
D6Sun, Feb 02, 2020 - Mon, Feb 03, 2020(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280851 SPC AC 280851 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2020 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Friday (Day 4) Model consensus is that a southern-stream shortwave trough will deamplify as it phases with a northern-stream trough and continues east northeast through the Southeastern States. A warm front will move north into southern FL accompanied by weak instability, but the front will remain south of the corridor of stronger vertical shear accompanying the deamplifying shortwave trough. While some risk for severe storms could evolve from this potential scenario as storms develop in vicinity of the warm front, current indications are that instability will probably remain too marginal for a more substantial threat. Saturday-Sunday (days 5-6) The boundary across FL will transition to a cold front as cyclogenesis commences off the Atlantic seaboard in association with the progressive southern-stream shortwave trough. The front will move off the FL Peninsula during the day, and while a few thunderstorms may develop along this boundary, instability is expected to remain too weak for a substantial severe threat. Later Saturday through Sunday the Gulf frontal intrusion will result in stable conditions inland. By days 7-8 (Monday-Tuesday) richer Gulf moisture will begin returning through east TX and the lower MS Valley ahead of the next shortwave trough. While a severe threat might evolve from east TX into the Southeast States during this period, too much uncertainty exists regarding timing and amplitude of these waves to introduce a categorical severe risk area at this time. ..Dial.. 01/28/2020 CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT